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Tropical Depression Dalila Graphics
2019-07-24 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2019 20:33:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2019 21:24:06 GMT
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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-07-24 22:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 517 WTPZ45 KNHC 242032 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Dalila has continued to wane since the previous advisory, and the system has become a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a small area of colder cloud tops over the eastern semicircle. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 25 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. Dalila will continue to move over progressively cooler waters, and into a drier and more stable air mass during the next day or two. This should result in additional weakening, and Dalila is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Thursday. Dalila is still moving northwestward or 315/6 kt. As the cyclone weakens and becomes an increasingly vertically shallow system, it is forecast to turn west-northwestward within the low-level easterly flow. The models are in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast track is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 20.7N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 21.9N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-07-24 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 242032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Dalila (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-24 22:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 the center of Dalila was located near 20.7, -119.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Dalila Public Advisory Number 11
2019-07-24 22:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 242031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dalila Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 ...DALILA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 119.8W ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dalila was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 119.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by early Thursday, and that general motion should continue until the system dissipates in a few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dalila is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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