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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-07-24 10:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240836 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Dalila has maintained a robust low-level circulation based on recent scatterometer wind data, but those data also indicate that Dalila's peak winds had decreased to 27-30 kt despite a sharp increase in deep convection near and southeast of the center. UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates suggest a higher intensity of 35-44 kt. However, it appears that the cooler water that the cyclone is moving over has stabilized the boundary layer, which is not allowing the normal downward mixing of stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. Given the lower ASCAT wind data, Dalila has been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The initial motion estimate is 315/05 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track and intensity forecast philosophies. Dalila is expected to move northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Thursday when the weakening cyclone becomes more shallow and comes under the influence of easterly trade wind flow. The cyclone is now moving over 25 deg C sea-surface temperatures, with cooler water and more stable air still ahead of Dalila. As a result, convection is expected to gradually wane during the next 24 hours, accompanied by a steady spin down of the vortex, which should result in the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday morning, if not sooner. The NHC track and intensity forecasts closely follow the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, respectively. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 19.8N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 21.8N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z 22.2N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Depression Dalila (EP5/EP052019)

2019-07-24 10:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DALILA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 the center of Dalila was located near 19.8, -118.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Dalila Public Advisory Number 9

2019-07-24 10:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240836 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dalila Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 ...DALILA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 118.8W ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dalila was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 118.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by Thursday and that general motion should continue until the system dissipates in a few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dalila is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 9

2019-07-24 10:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240835 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 0900 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 118.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.8N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.2N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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