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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-07-24 04:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240240 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dalila has changed little during the last several hours. The storm remains very asymmetric with deep convection limited to the southeastern quadrant due to northwesterly vertical wind shear. An ASCAT pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds of about 35 kt, and since the system has been steady state, the initial intensity is held at that value. Dalila has just crossed the 26 degree C isotherm and it is headed for even cooler waters. In addition, a field of stratocumulus clouds are seen in satellite images near and to the west of the system, indicative of the nearby stable air mass. These conditions should lead to weakening soon, and Dalila is expected to become a tropical depression within the next 12 hours and a remnant low in a day or so. The global models show the remnant low opening up into a trough in a few days or less. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance. The storm is still moving northwestward, but it is gradually turning to the left. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast during the next day or so, as the cyclone loses its convection and moves within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and that motion should continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 19.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-07-24 04:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240240 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 0300 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 18(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-24 04:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 the center of Dalila was located near 19.4, -118.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 8
2019-07-24 04:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 ...DALILA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 118.4W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 317 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 118.4 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by late Wednesday and that motion should continue until the system dissipates in a few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dalila is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight or Wednesday and will likely degenerate into a remnant low in a day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-07-24 04:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240239 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 0300 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 118.4W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 317 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 118.4W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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