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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-08 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 20:34:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 20:34:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-10-08 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 082033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Norbert has a ragged and disorganized appearance, with asymmetrical convection bursting intermittently around the center. Satellite imagery suggests that the system is now experiencing some southeasterly shear. A recent ASCAT overpass sampled peak winds of 24 kt, so the advisory intensity will remain 25 kt. The current environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much over the next few days. Therefore, only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter a more stable atmosphere, which would limit convection and cause Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to be declared a remnant low before that time. Another plausible scenario is that Norbert's low level circulation dissipates and opens up into a surface trough later in the forecast period. The only change to the latest NHC forecast is that no further strengthening is indicated, which is agreement with every available intensity model except the SHIPS guidance. Norbert has barely budged since early this morning due to a lack of steering currents. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, which should cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By Sunday, however, a mid-upper level low digging across northern Mexico should weaken the ridge, and the model guidance has trended toward Norbert once again meandering for a couple of days. By day 5, low-level ridging building to the northwest of Norbert should cause the shallow system to begin a westward motion. Due to the lack of run-to-run model consistency in the 3-5 day period, that portion of the track forecast is of low confidence. The NHC forecast track was changed little through 48 h, then is slower at 60-96 h to reflect the second collapse of the steering currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 14.8N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 15.0N 107.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 15.1N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-08 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED NORBERT REMAINS PARKED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 the center of Norbert was located near 13.1, -106.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 13
2020-10-08 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 082032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...POORLY ORGANIZED NORBERT REMAINS PARKED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 106.1W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 106.1 West. The depression is stationary and little motion is expected through tonight. A slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected Friday through Saturday. The system is then forecast to meander again later this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-10-08 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 082032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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