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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-08 10:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 the center of Norbert was located near 13.2, -106.3 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 11
2020-10-08 10:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080842 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 106.3W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). Little movement is expected today, with a west-southwestward motion forecast to begin tonight into Friday. A slightly faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected by this weekend. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-08 10:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080841 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.3W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.3W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 106.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.5N 107.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 108.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-08 04:41:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 02:41:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 02:41:23 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-08 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Tropical Depression Norbert is still struggling to maintain any deep convection near its center. Satellite imagery indicates the low-level center remains exposed, and a small convective burst noted in recent infrared imagery is already collapsing. The initial intensity is perhaps generously held at 30 kt based on a blend of recent objective satellite estimates and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Overnight scatterometer data should help further assess whether additional weakening has occurred. Norbert continues to meander within a weak steering pattern, and its center has drifted southeast of the previous advisory position. Little movement is expected during the next 12 h, but Norbert should begin slowly moving west-southwestward from 12-36 h. Then, the cyclone should move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 5 kt for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this advisory. Although current satellite trends do not bode well for Norbert, the system remains embedded in a favorable environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance suggests the deep-layer shear will increase slightly during the next 24 h, which combined with any more dry air intrusions could cause Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low. On the other hand, increasing mid-level moisture and weaker shear beyond this time period could allow for a convective burst capable of getting Norbert back to minimal tropical storm strength. Given the mixed signals for small intensity fluctuations in either direction, the official intensity forecast holds Norbert's intensity steady for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 13.1N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 13.0N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 13.2N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 13.9N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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