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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-06 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS NORBERT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 the center of NORBERT was located near 25.3, -114.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 18
2014-09-06 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062038 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 ...WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS NORBERT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 114.8W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND FOR THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND....PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2014-09-06 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 062038 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 2100 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 16 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LORETO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-06 22:37:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS NORBERT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 the center of NORBERT was located near 25.3, -114.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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norbert
Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 18
2014-09-06 22:37:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 062037 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 2100 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND FOR THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 114.8W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 90SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 200SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 114.8W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.8N 115.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.6N 116.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.8N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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