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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-06 10:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 08:55:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 08:55:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-10-06 10:53:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060853 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Deep convection has persisted overnight in association with former Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, forming a well-defined central dense overcast over the center. Additionally, a 0448 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed a compact, circular wind field with at least 35-40 kt in the eastern semicircle of the system. Thus, the initial intensity has been raised to 40 kt, and the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Norbert. Norbert is presently moving northwestward at 6 kt, steered by a weakening mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The storm is expected to slow down later today as the steering currents collapse, and Norbert will likely meander offshore for several days before resuming a slow west-northwestward motion late in the forecast period. There remains above average spread in the track guidance given the weak steering flow, and the NHC track forecast lies fairly close to the consensus aids. Norbert is a compact storm over very warm waters, and the limited deep-layer shear it is experiencing should allow for steady strengthening over the next couple of days. The global guidance continues to struggle with this small storm, so the latest NHC intensity forecast trends well above the consensus aids and closer to the statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance. Given the very favorable environmental conditions, it is certainly possible that Norbert could intensify even more than forecast. By day 3 and beyond, vertical wind shear is expected to increase, which could cause the storm's intensity to level off through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.0N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 14.1N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 14.3N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 14.9N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-10-06 10:52:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060852 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 11(31) 4(35) 1(36) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 9(14) 12(26) 8(34) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-06 10:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NORBERT... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Norbert was located near 13.7, -106.2 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 3
2020-10-06 10:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NORBERT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 106.2W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 106.2 West. Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected today, and Norbert is forecast to remain nearly stationary through midweek. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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