je.st
news
Tag: norbert
Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-06 16:44:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 14:44:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 15:35:36 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-10-06 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061443 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 The overall appearance of Norbert has changed little since early this morning, with a mass of deep convection pulsating over the low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 40 kt. The environment appears conducive for Norbert to strengthen over warm waters with low vertical wind shear. Despite this, most of the global and hi-res dynamical models do not strengthen Norbert, and in fact the HWRF and HMON both weaken the system over the next couple of days. Therefore, the consensus aids also do not indicate that the system will intensify. On the other end of the spectrum, the SHIPS guidance favors strengthening over the next couple of days and indicates that Norbert will be nearing hurricane strength within a few days. The latest NHC forecast remains above the consensus aids but below the SHIPS guidance, suggesting some gradual strengthening over the next 48 h, prior to the increase in shear. Norbert continues to move northwestward at 6 kt, steered by a weakening mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The steering currents are forecast to collapse by tonight, and the cyclone is expected to meander through the middle of the week. By late this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the cyclone which would result in a slow west-northwestward motion. Due to the weak steering flow, there is a larger than normal spread in the track guidance. The latest NHC forecast remains close to the consensus aids, and is slightly faster then the previous forecast at days 3-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.2N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 14.5N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 14.7N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 14.8N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 15.0N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 15.2N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 15.7N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-06 16:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT CHANGES LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Norbert was located near 14.2, -106.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 4
2020-10-06 16:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 061442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NORBERT CHANGES LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 106.6W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 106.6 West. Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected until tonight. The system is forecast to meander thereafter through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-10-06 16:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 061442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 11(28) 2(30) X(30) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 13(18) 17(35) 7(42) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Sites : [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] next »