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Tropical Storm FAY Public Advisory Number 13
2014-10-13 10:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130847 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 ...FAY ACCELERATING EASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 55.3W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FAY IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-10-13 10:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130847 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 0900 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 55.3W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 220SE 270SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 55.3W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.3N 51.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.7N 47.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.7N 43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.1N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 55.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-10-13 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130235 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 Fay's cloud pattern has rapidly deteriorated in organization since this afternoon due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. Microwave and last-light visible satellite imagery indicate that the low-level center has become exposed to the southwest of a large mass of very cold-topped convection. The same satellite data also indicate that the center has become increasingly deformed, making the initial position more uncertain than normal. This uncertainty has resulted in a large scatter in Dvorak intensity estimates. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB, which was closest to the estimated center position. Even stronger west-southwesterly shear should affect Fay during the next couple of days. Meanwhile, much drier and more stable air behind a cold front impinging on the storm from the northwest should become entrained within Fay's circulation. The combination of these factors should lead to additional steady weakening, with global models showing extratropical transition occurring in about 24 hours (or perhaps sooner). The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and in excellent agreement with the latest statistical- dynamical model consensus. The exposed center in the last few visible images was south of previous estimates, and as a result the initial motion estimate is now more sharply toward the east, or 080/21. Fay is expected to continue racing eastward or east-southeastward at the base of a potent shortwave trough moving through eastern Atlantic Canada and the north Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted toward the right of the previous one, based primarily on the new center position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 34.1N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 34.4N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 33.9N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/1200Z 33.4N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0000Z 33.0N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-13 04:34:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Oct 2014 02:34:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Oct 2014 02:33:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-13 04:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 12 the center of FAY was located near 34.1, -58.2 with movement E at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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