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Tropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-12 04:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Oct 2014 02:34:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Oct 2014 02:31:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-12 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAIN BANDS FROM FAY MOVING OVER BERMUDA... ...CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 11 the center of FAY was located near 30.9, -65.0 with movement N at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm FAY Public Advisory Number 8
2014-10-12 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 ...RAIN BANDS FROM FAY MOVING OVER BERMUDA... ...CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 65.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL PASS NEAR BERMUDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA ON SUNDAY MORNING. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH... 69 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm FAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2014-10-12 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 120232 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 0300 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Advisory Number 8
2014-10-12 04:30:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120230 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 0300 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 65.0W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 220SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 65.0W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.7N 63.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.6N 58.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 65.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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