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Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Advisory Number 12
2014-10-13 04:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 0300 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 58.2W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 58.2W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 59.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 34.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.9N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 170SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.4N 42.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 58.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane FAY Graphics
2014-10-12 23:10:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Oct 2014 20:32:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Oct 2014 21:05:46 GMT
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Hurricane FAY Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-10-12 22:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122034 TCDAT2 HURRICANE FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 After 1200 UTC, subjective T-numbers from and TAFB and objective numbers from the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS indicate that Fay has reached hurricane status with an initial intensity of 65 kt. This coincided with the presence of a closed mid-level eye feature in microwave imagery and a center surrounded by very deep convection. Fay is the fifth hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Given the strong shear and the expected interaction with a cold front, Fay will probably weaken below hurricane status during the next few hours and begin the expected extratropical transition. Fay is already embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies and is moving toward the east-northwest or 070 degrees at 22 kt. Fay should accelerate even further and turn more to the east. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the previous forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 34.7N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 35.6N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0600Z 35.0N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1800Z 33.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Hurricane FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-12 22:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY REACHES HURRICANE STATUS BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 12 the center of FAY was located near 34.7, -60.7 with movement ENE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane FAY Public Advisory Number 11
2014-10-12 22:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 122033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 ...FAY REACHES HURRICANE STATUS BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 60.7W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REACHED NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STATUS TONIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE FAY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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