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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 11
2015-08-29 10:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290850 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ...JIMENA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 124.8W ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 124.8 West. Jimena is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Jimena is expected to be near category 5 strength later today and Sunday. The hurricane is forecast to start a weakening trend on Monday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
2015-08-29 05:20:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 02:44:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 03:08:26 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-08-29 04:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 the center of JIMENA was located near 12.3, -124.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 10
2015-08-29 04:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290250 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 ...JIMENA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 124.2W ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 124.2 West. Jimena is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. A turn toward the west- northwest is expected by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Jimena is expected to be near category 5 strength on Saturday. After that time, fluctuations in intensity are possible, but Jimena should remain a powerful hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-08-29 04:49:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290249 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Jimena is rapidly intensifying. Conventional satellite imagery shows that the hurricane's well-defined eye has warmed and contracted since the last advisory. Its central dense overcast, consisting of very cold cloud top temperatures, has also become increasingly more symmetric. Aside from Jimena's core features, outer bands surrounding the cyclone have also increased and become better defined. Dvorak classifications were T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value is 6.2/120 kt. A blend of these data are used to arrive at an intensity estimate of 110 kt, making Jimena the fourth major hurricane of the season. The initial motion estimate is 275/10, although the cyclone appears to have recently experienced a southward trochoidal wobble. Directly underneath a subtropical ridge to the north, Jimena should maintain a general westward course for the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Jimena's heading should become west-northwestward as it nears a break in this ridge around 140W, created by a mid-level trough extending southwestward from California. A significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96 hours when the cyclone reaches the weakness around 140W. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 3 days and is only slightly divergent after that time, with the multi-model consensus trending southward during the last 24 hours from days 3 to 5. The new track forecast has been nudged slightly southward in the short term and a little bit more in the extended range, following the trend in the guidance. The rapid intensification phase that Jimena is undergoing is likely to continue in the short term while it encounters relatively light shear and moves over anomalously high oceanic heat content. These very conducive large-scale factors for intensification suggest that Jimena should reach a peak intensity of near category 5 strength in about 24 hours or so. The hurricane could remain around its peak intensity through 48 hours, even though SHIPS model output shows some drying of the lower to middle troposphere along Jimena's track. However, it should be noted that intense hurricanes such as Jimena frequently experience eyewall replacements that can cause fluctuations in intensity, and their occurrence and evolution are nearly impossible to predict. After about 2 days, a slow decay is forecast since oceanic and atmospheric conditions will only gradually become less conducive. Jimena's continued strenghtening has required an upward adjustment of the intensity forecast in the short term, and the new forecast is in excellent agreement with the statistical guidance as well as the FSU Superensemble output. The new forecast then trends toward the multi-model consensus from days 3 to 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 12.3N 124.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 12.5N 125.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 16.3N 136.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 17.3N 139.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 18.0N 141.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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