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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-10-06 04:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060246 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 105.6W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 105.6W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 105.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-10-05 22:58:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052058 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better-defined today. The associated deep convection has also become more organized and convection has persisted over the low-level center since early this morning. In addition, a banding feature has also developed over the western portion of the circulation. Based on these trends, advisories have been initiated for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The ASCAT data showed winds as high as 32 kt. However, these vectors were at the very edge of the data swath, and may be unreliable. The initial intensity of 30 kt is therefore based off the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The forecast for the depression is not straightforward and there is a larger than normal amount of uncertainty for both the future track and intensity of the cyclone. The global models generally do not favor much strengthening beyond 24 h and some of the guidance, including the GFS and HWRF indicate weakening. On the other hand, the SHIPS guidance suggests gradual strengthening and indicate the cyclone could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The overall environment appears conducive for the depression to intensify over the next several days, with very warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with. One negative influence that the global models could be picking up on is an ongoing interaction with the larger scale Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The NHC forecast, out of respect for the skilled global and dynamical models, does not show as a robust rate of strengthening as suggested by the SHIPS guidance. However, some intensification is indicated throughout the forecast period due to the aforementioned favorable environmental factors. The initial motion of the depression is 340/6 kt. This motion is expected to continue through tonight as the depression is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to weaken tomorrow and steering currents over the depression are expected to collapse through the middle of the week. The track guidance is highly divergent after 48 h, as the models appear to steer the cyclone in varying directions based off the interaction with the ITCZ in the midst of weak synoptic steering. By the end of the forecast period, the models are generally in better agreement on a slow northwesterly motion as the ridge rebuilds to the northeast of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Graphics
2020-10-05 22:54:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 20:54:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 20:54:58 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-05 22:54:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 12.8, -105.4 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-10-05 22:54:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 052053 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 105.4W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly developed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 105.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a slowing of forward speed. The depression is expected to meander through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible over the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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