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Summary for Remnants of Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192018)

2018-09-20 10:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 28.1, -110.0 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Remnants of Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 4

2018-09-20 10:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 050 WTPZ34 KNHC 200831 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Nineteen-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 ...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 110.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States monitor the progress of the remnants of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E for the continued threat of heavy rainfall and flooding. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Nineteen-E were located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 110.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). Moisture associated with the remnants should move northeastward across northwestern Mexico and into the southwestern and south-central United States over the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly over the Gulf of California. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of the depression are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa, and 2 to 4 inches in western Chihuahua. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Sonora and northern Sinaloa. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States today, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Remnants of Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2018-09-20 10:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 026 FOPZ14 KNHC 200831 PWSEP4 REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Remnants of Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 4

2018-09-20 10:31:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 515 WTPZ24 KNHC 200831 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 0900 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 110.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 110.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 110.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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