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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-19 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 539 WTPZ34 KNHC 191453 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 110.9W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 110.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to become more north-northeast tonight with a similar forward motion until the system dissipates on Thursday. On the forecast track the depression is forecast to move inland over northwestern Mexico this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant strengthening is expected before the system moves inland over mainland northwestern Mexico, then steady weakening is forecast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from this disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States beginning today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-19 16:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 365 WTPZ24 KNHC 191452 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 110.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 110.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192016)
2016-09-27 06:13:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES INTO CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 26 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 11.6, -140.4 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-26 16:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 261445 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 Scatterometer data from around 0600 UTC indicated that the area of low pressure located near 140W had a well-defined circulation, with peak reliable wind vectors of 28 kt. Deep convection associated with this system has since become much better organized. Satellite classifications are T2.0 and T2.5, and the low is designated as a tropical depression based on these satellite data. Light northwesterly shear, warm waters of around 28 deg C and an increasingly diffluent flow aloft over the cyclone support intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. The large divergence expected over the depression is related to a mid-level cyclone seen in water vapor imagery near 18N 140W that is forecast to retrograde. The only negative factor is marginal mid-level moisture that is forecast to decrease further. Once the system gains sufficient latitude after 72 hours, it is likely to become vulnerable to much stronger westerly flow aloft. In fact, with 30 to 40 kt of westerly shear forecast over the cyclone by day 4, rapid weakening should occur, and the system is forecast to be a remnant low by that time. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the statistical and dynamical guidance through 72 hours and is below both sets of output after that time. The low was moving just south of due west during the last 24 hours, but appears to have recently turned toward the northwest. Given the sudden change in heading, the initial motion estimate of 305/04 is rather uncertain. Global models show the cyclone turning northward within 24 hours and then moving north-northeastward after that for the next few days while it rotates around the mid-level low to the northwest of the cyclone. Once the cyclone weakens appreciably after 72 hours, a turn toward the west is likely when the remnant low is steered by the trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a left of the multi-model consensus, close to a consensus without the GFDL model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 11.6N 139.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 12.8N 139.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 13.6N 138.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 14.4N 138.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 16.1N 138.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 17.2N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 17.3N 142.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-09-26 16:42:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 261442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 2(18) X(18) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 10N 140W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 10(27) 5(32) 2(34) X(34) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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