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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-09-26 10:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260835 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 200 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 The sheared cloud pattern in infrared satellite imagery has changed little since the previous advisory. However, a 0304Z SSMI/S pass indicated the low-level structure had improved markedly, with a sharp hooked band wrapping more than half around the now well-defined low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and the improved low-level structure indicated in SSMI/S 37 GHZ data. This makes Roslyn the seventeenth named storm of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial motion estimate is 020/4 kt. The advisory position had to be adjusted more than 30 nmi to the east of the previous advisory track based on recent SSMI/S and AMSU microwave center fixes. Otherwise, the previous track forecast rationale remains unchanged. A large mid- to upper-level low currently located over the central Baja California peninsula is expected to continue moving westward to west-southwestward during the next day or two. The combined southwesterly flow between that low and a deep-layer ridge located to the east and southeast of Roslyn should keep the tropical cyclone moving slowly north-northeastward to northeastward for the next 48 hours. After that, Roslyn is expected to weaken into a shallow remnant low, turning northward on day 3 and then northwestward on day 4. The new NHC track forecast is to the right of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more eastward initial position, and lies close to the various consensus models. Little if any strengthening is expected due to gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and a very dry mid-level moisture regime characterized by humidity values less than 40 percent. By 36 to 48 hours, the vertical shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt, which is expected to erode the deep convection and induce steady weakening. As a result, Roslyn is forecast to become a remnant low by 48 hours, but this could occur sooner. The GFS and ECMWF models show the remnant low dissipating by the end of the forecast period when Roslyn will be moving over sub-24C SSTs. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.8N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 19.1N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 20.4N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 22.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 24.6N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-09-26 10:35:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 0900 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)
2016-09-26 10:35:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 26 the center of ROSLYN was located near 16.8, -119.5 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 4
2016-09-26 10:35:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 200 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 119.5W ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 119.5 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-09-26 10:35:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 0900 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 119.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 119.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 119.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.2N 119.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.1N 117.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.4N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.6N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 119.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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