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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2016-09-26 16:42:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 261442 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1500 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-09-26 16:42:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 Roslyn remains a large, but sheared tropical storm. An 0847 UTC AMSR microwave overpass indicates that the low-level center is located well to west of the large area of deep convection, due to moderate southwesterly shear. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged from before, so the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory. The southwesterly shear that is currently affecting the cyclone is predicted to increase during the next 24 hours, which should prevent significant strengthening while Roslyn remains over marginally warm water. In a little more than 24 hours, the tropical storm will be crossing the 26 deg C isotherm and moving into a more stable air mass, which should begin the weakening process. The NHC forecast shows Roslyn becoming a remnant low within 48 hours, and dissipating by the end of the forecast period. Recent fixes suggest that Roslyn is moving north-northeastward or 015/4 kt. The tropical storm should turn northeastward today in the southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a large mid- to upper-level low over the Baja California peninsula. After Roslyn weakens into a shallow remnant low, it should turn northward and then northwestward in the low-level flow west of the Baja peninsula. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.0N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 17.5N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 19.7N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.0N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 23.2N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 24.5N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Storm ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)

2016-09-26 16:42:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 26 the center of ROSLYN was located near 17.0, -119.4 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 5

2016-09-26 16:42:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 261442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 ...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 119.4W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 119.4 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with some increase in forward speed is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Weakening should begin by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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