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Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 5
2017-11-07 09:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070843 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 ...RINA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 49.8W ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1370 MI...2200 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 49.8 West. Rina is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion accompanied by an increase in forward speed is expected through today. A turn toward north-northeast is forecast to occur by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure of 1009 mb (29.80 inches) is based on recent reports from a nearby buoy. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-11-07 09:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 07 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070843 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 0900 UTC TUE NOV 07 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 49.8W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 49.8W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 33.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.0N 48.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 40.4N 47.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 44.4N 44.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 53.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
2017-11-07 03:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Nov 2017 02:41:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Nov 2017 03:25:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-11-07 03:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070236 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 Despite the low-level center being exposed to the west of the deep convection, a pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 00Z and 01Z showed an area of 30-35 kt winds east of the cyclone's center. Based on the ASCAT data, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm with the initial intensity set at 35 kt. The rather disorganized cloud pattern is consistent with the approximately 20 kt of westerly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for intensification via diabatic processes, with the shear expected to remain near 20 kt and the SSTs cooling along the forecast track. After 24 to 36 hours, cooling upper-tropospheric temperatures and increasing upper-level divergence suggest that Rina will maintain its intensity as it begins extratropical transition, which should be complete between by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the HWRF and HCCA aids. The official forecast shows Rina dissipating by 96 hours in agreement with global model fields. The exposed low-level center and ASCAT passes result in high confidence in the initial position, and Rina has begun to move more steadily, with an initial motion estimate of 010/06. Rina should continue to accelerate northward and north-northeastward during the next 36 to 48 hours between a mid-level ridge to the east and an upper-level trough to the west. After 48 hours, Rina is forecast to accelerate further as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance has shifted left this cycle, and the along-track spread is quite large by 72 hours, with the GFS more than 500 n mi northeast of the ECMWF at that time. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted westward and a bit slower, and lies close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions to the east of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual given the large model spread. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 30.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 32.4N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 35.4N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 42.3N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 51.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-07 03:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RINA... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Nov 6 the center of Rina was located near 30.4, -49.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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