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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Advisory Number 8
2017-11-08 03:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080236 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 0300 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 48.5W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 200SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 48.5W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 41.2N 47.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.7N 43.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...220NE 250SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
2017-11-07 15:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Nov 2017 14:51:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Nov 2017 14:51:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-11-07 15:46:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071446 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 Thunderstorms continue to increase near and on the northeastern side of Rina. However, the center remains partially exposed due to southwesterly shear. Although the overall convective pattern is more organized than a few hours ago, satellite estimates continue to support a conservative initial wind speed of 35 kt for this advisory. The environment around Rina is expected to be only slightly supportive of intensification for the next day or so with moderate shear and cool upper-level temperatures offsetting marginal SSTs. In about 48 hours, Rina should interact with a frontal boundary and become post-tropical. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, which is near or slightly above the consensus. Rina is moving northward at about 13 kt. The storm is forecast to accelerate today and turn northeastward tomorrow as it becomes more embedded within the mid-latitude flow. Rina should move rather rapidly to the northeast later this week over the far northern Atlantic ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes. Only small changes were made to the track forecast, and the new NHC prediction is slightly faster than the last one at long range. The storm should dissipate by day 4 well west of Ireland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 32.4N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 34.7N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 41.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 45.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z 56.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-11-07 15:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 07 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 071446 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 1500 UTC TUE NOV 07 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-07 15:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RINA MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Nov 7 the center of Rina was located near 32.4, -49.3 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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