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Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 11
2017-11-08 21:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 ...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THURSDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.9N 48.6W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 48.6 West. Rina is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected overnight, followed by a rapid northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward motion on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Thursday morning. Rina is becoming a larger tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-11-08 21:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 082031 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 2100 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-11-08 21:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 082031 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 2100 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 48.6W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 260SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 48.6W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 44.0N 47.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 280SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 53.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 300SE 180SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 55.5N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 300SE 360SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
2017-11-08 15:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Nov 2017 14:48:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Nov 2017 14:48:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-11-08 15:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 081443 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 Rina continues to have some subtropical characteristics with satellite images showing an asymmetric, comma-cloud structure. Still, AMSU and model analyses are showing the system as moderately warm core, and there are no signs of fronts near the core. Thus, Rina will stay as a tropical cyclone, and 50 kt is kept as the initial wind speed based on the latest satellite estimates. Little change in strength is expected before Rina loses all deep convection within the next 24 hours over chilly waters. The system should become embedded within a frontal zone over the far north Atlantic in a day or two, and dissipate west of Ireland. No changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. The storm is moving northward a bit faster at 18 kt. A continued acceleration and a turn to the north-northeast is expected overnight as Rina moves ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes. The cyclone should move quite rapidly to the northeast by late Thursday and east-northeast on Friday due to strong mid-latitude flow. The westward guidance trend in the short-term part of the forecast is still present, and the new NHC prediction is moved in that direction in the first 24 hours, with little change thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 39.4N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 42.2N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 47.1N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 10/0000Z 52.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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