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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-20 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200234 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Microwave data since the previous advisory indicates that the center of Wilfred is located near the southwestern edge of the deep convection. The displacement of the center from the convection is the result of moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, and is based on an ASCAT-B overpass from around 0000 UTC that revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt. Wilfred is headed toward an area of increasing westerly wind shear, and a drier mid-level environment. These negative factors should lead to weakening in 24 to 48 h, and the global models dissipate the cyclone within the next few days. The official forecast follows suit, but given the small size of the cyclone it could weaken and dissipate sooner than indicated below. The initial motion estimate is 295/14, a little faster than before. Wilfred is forecast to remain on a west-northwestward heading through Sunday, but should turn westward within the low-level flow by Sunday night or Monday. The latest NHC track forecast is once again similar to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.8N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 16.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 16.4N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-20 04:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 200233 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-20 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WILFRED CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Wilfred was located near 14.5, -40.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-20 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...WILFRED CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 40.5W ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 40.5 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a slower westward motion late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday. Gradual Weakening is expected Sunday night and Monday, and Wilfred is expected to dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-20 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200232 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.3N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 45.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.2N 47.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 49.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 40.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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