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Remnants of Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-21 04:34:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:34:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 02:34:09 GMT
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Remnants of Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-21 04:33:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210233 TCDAT3 Remnants Of Wilfred Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 Northwesterly vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on Wilfred. Recent infrared satellite imagery along with scatterometer data indicate that Wilfred's low-level circulation has become an open trough of low pressure. Therefore, Wilfred is no longer a tropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The remaining deep convection has a linear shape and appears to be the result of the system interacting with an upper-level trough to its northwest. The scatterometer data revealed peak winds of close to 30 kt to the north of the trough axis, and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The system is moving generally westward at about 15 kt. The trough should continue to move westward at a slightly slower forward speed until it weakens and dissipates within a few days. This is the last NHC advisory on Wilfred. Additional information on the remnants of this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 15.9N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-21 04:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 210232 PWSAT3 REMNANTS OF WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF WILFRED WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS ...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Remnants of Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-21 04:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WILFRED DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Wilfred was located near 15.9, -47.4 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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wilfred
Remnants of Wilfred Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-21 04:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Wilfred Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...WILFRED DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 47.4W ABOUT 1555 MI...2500 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Wilfred were located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 47.4 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Winds should continue to decrease over the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Wilfred. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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