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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 21

2015-10-03 04:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030252 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR BERMUDA...THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 74.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 90SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 74.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 74.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.7N 72.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.0N 67.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 41.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 46.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 74.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics

2015-10-03 01:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2015 23:51:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2015 21:05:48 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)

2015-10-03 01:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CORE OF INTENSE HURRICANE JOAQUIN BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 24.3, -74.3 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 20A

2015-10-03 01:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 022345 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 ...CORE OF INTENSE HURRICANE JOAQUIN BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 74.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located by a reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 74.3 West. Joaquin is now moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will move away from the Bahamas later tonight. Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure just reported by the Air Force reconnaissance plane was 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of the central Bahamas for the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas, northwestern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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