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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 28
2015-10-04 16:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 041450 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 66.8W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 200SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 66.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-04 13:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 11:49:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 09:07:45 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-04 13:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING BERMUDA... ...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM AST Sun Oct 4 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 30.4, -67.1 with movement NE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-04 10:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 08:42:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 08:50:44 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 27
2015-10-04 10:43:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 040843 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to gradually deteriorate overnight with most of the deep convection now located over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The earlier reconnaissance aircraft mission reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 125 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 94 kt during its last pass through the southeastern portion of eyewall just before 0500 UTC. Dropsonde and SFMR data suggest that the flight-level winds are not mixing down as efficiently as before, and the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt, which is a blend of the various reconnaissance wind data. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm and should provide a better assessment of Joaquin's intensity this morning. Recent center fixes indicate that the motion of Joaquin has started to bend toward the north-northeast, but the longer term motion is still northeastward or 040/17 kt. The hurricane should turn north-northeastward this morning, and pass near Bermuda this afternoon as it moves between a large mid- to upper-level low to its west and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. After passing the Bermuda Joaquin is expected to turn northeastward, then east-northeastward after 48 hours when it reaches the mid-latitude westerlies. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and it remains near the center of the tightly cluster guidance models. Moderate to strong southwesterly shear is expected to cause some weakening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Joaquin is forecast to remain a strong hurricane while it passes near or over Bermuda later today. Gradual weakening should continue after 24 hours, as the hurricane encounters cooler waters and remains within an environment of moderate shear. Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic in a little more than 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center at 96 and 120 h when the cyclone will be post-tropical. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 29.7N 67.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 31.6N 66.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 33.7N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 35.5N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 37.6N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 41.8N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 50.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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