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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2015-10-03 17:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1600 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 031550 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1600 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X 26(26) 44(70) 4(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) BERMUDA 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-03 17:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH WINDS... As of 12:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 26.0, -71.6 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 933 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 24
2015-10-03 17:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1600 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 031549 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1600 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR BERMUDA...THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 71.6W AT 03/1600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 180SE 130SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 210SE 210SW 570NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 71.6W AT 03/1600Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 72.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 30.7N 68.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.0N 66.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 43.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 48.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 71.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 24
2015-10-03 17:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 031549 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 71.6W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight with an increase in forward speed. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the eye of Joaquin will continue to move away from the Bahamas today, and pass west of Bermuda on Sunday. However, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane and stronger winds closer to Bermuda. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane just indicated that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is still anticipated during the next couple of days. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure recently reported by a reconnaissance plane was 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds will continue to affect portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions possible by Sunday afternoon. STORM SURGE: Water levels should continue to slowly subside today as Joaquin moves away from the Bahamas. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over the Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through today. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 25 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Joaquin Causes Utilities To Request Help From Thousands Of Workers
2015-10-03 17:19:15| Energy - Topix.net
Two of New Jersey's largest utility providers have requested additional help as Nor'easter conditions Hurricane Joaquin brings with it as it moves up the East Coast. Although the storm is turning away from New Jersey, both Public Service Electric and Gas and Jersey Central Power & Light are requesting additional help keeping, and restoring, power for millions of residents.
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