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Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-26 05:18:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 02:40:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 03:07:14 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-08-26 04:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260239 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 Satellite data indicate that Marie has gradually been weakening. Inner-core deep convection has been slowly warming, with coldest tops now south of center. Additionally, the eye has become less defined and has cooled significantly since the last advisory. A 2210 UTC TRMM overpass shows that the hurricane has also been maintaining a classic concentric eyewall structure - a double eyewall within 60 n mi of the center, with the inner eyewall possibly in the process of collapsing. A third, less-defined eyewall was noted at around 110 n mi radius, separated by a prominent dry slot. The initial intensity for this advisory is reduced to 100 kt, based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Continued slow weakening is expected in the short term due to gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and the possibility of the current eyewall replacement evolving further. Even though the vertical shear is forecast to be light, Marie will be crossing the 26 deg C isotherm in 12-18 hours and should reach sub-24 deg C waters by 48 hours. With the thermodynamic environment worsening so quickly, near-rapid weakening is likely after about 24 hours until the cyclone becomes post-tropical by day 3. The cyclone will then continue to spin down over even cooler waters, but the remnant circulation could linger beyond the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast has been lowered a bit relative to the previous one due mostly to the greater rate of weakening observed since the last advisory. Marie is continuing on a steady northwestward course of 305/11. Mid-level ridging extending west-southwestward from the eastern United States in the subtropical eastern Pacific should continue to steer Marie on a west-northwestward to northwestward path during the next few days. After losing its deep convection by day 3 or so, the cyclone's track should bend north-northwestward or even northward and slow down. There continues to be little change with regard to the track guidance and little in the way of modifications was made to the previous track. The new NHC track is in the center of guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 19.2N 116.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 20.2N 118.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 21.3N 120.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 22.4N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 26.5N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/0000Z 29.4N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0000Z 30.8N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-26 04:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 the center of MARIE was located near 19.2, -116.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 17
2014-08-26 04:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260239 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...MARIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 116.7W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY. MARIE REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THESE SWELL...AS WELL AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-08-26 04:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260239 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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