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Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-08-24 22:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 242031 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 47 52(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 2 67(69) 3(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ISLA CLARION 64 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-24 17:18:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 14:49:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 15:07:17 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-08-24 16:48:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241448 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Marie's eye has cleared out and warmed during the past few hours, with very cold convective tops surrounding the center. As a result, TAFB and SAB measured data T-numbers of 7.0/140 kt, but both were constrained by Dvorak rules and settled on final-T estimates of T6.5/127 kt. Also, a UW-CIMSS intensity estimate from a 0938 AMSU pass was 126 kt. Based on these data, Marie's initial intensity is raised to 130 kt. The 12-hour motion estimate is 285/13 kt, although Marie has actually been moving more westward during the past few hours. The hurricane is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from Texas to the northern Baja peninsula, and this feature should propel Marie basically west-northwestward during the next 3-4 days. Thereafter, Marie will be located between strengthening ridging over northwestern Mexico and a weakness in the ridge leftover by Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell, and it should begin to turn north-northwestward by day 5. There is very little spread among the track guidance, and the updated NHC forecast essentially lies between the previous forecast and the TVCE multi-model consensus, which has shifted a bit to the right beyond day 2. Intensity fluctuations are always possible once hurricanes like Marie get this strong. Assuming unforeseen internal dynamics and/or an eyewall replacement do not take over soon, the environment around Marie should be able to support a little more strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter, slow weakening is likely until about day 3 when Marie will begin weakening more quickly over waters colder than 26C and in a more stable air mass. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity to account for the recent strengthening rate, but otherwise no significant changes were required. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells will cause dangerous life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.0N 111.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 16.5N 112.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 20.3N 117.9W 115 KT 135 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 25.5N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-08-24 16:48:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241448 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 37 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ISLA CLARION 34 9 82(91) 7(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ISLA CLARION 50 1 47(48) 32(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ISLA CLARION 64 X 13(13) 35(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
2014-08-24 16:47:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MIGHTY MARIE ON ITS WAY OUT TO SEA AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 the center of MARIE was located near 16.0, -111.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 929 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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