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Hurricane MARIE Public Advisory Number 10
2014-08-24 10:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240841 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...MARIE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES... ...NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 109.9W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...405 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 10
2014-08-24 10:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240841 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.9W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......220NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.9W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 116.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.4N 120.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 28.0N 130.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-08-24 10:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240841 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 51 10(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 3 39(42) 54(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ISLA CLARION 50 X 3( 3) 72(75) 8(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 47(47) 8(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane MARIE Graphics
2014-08-24 05:24:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 02:45:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 03:08:58 GMT
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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-08-24 04:48:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240248 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Marie's cloud pattern has become better organized since the last advisory. Pulsating convection within the cyclone's large central dense overcast has become more symmetric, and late-day visible satellite imagery showed an intermittent proto-eye. Several well-defined bands also wrap well around the circulation of Marie. A 2106 UTC GMI pass revealed a significant increase in the organization of hurricane's inner core since this morning, with a closed low-level ring of convection present then. An AMSU intensity estimate of 86 kt preceded a T5.0/90 kt Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB at 0000 UTC. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, the upper end of these estimates, based on some further increase in organization of the cyclone's satellite presentation since that time. Marie has been traveling on a west-northwestward course or 295/12, with the current motion to the right of that 24 hours ago. Marie should be steered around the southwestern periphery of an expansive mid-level ridge stretching from the eastern United States into the eastern Pacific during the next 24 hours or so. After that, the hurricane will reach the western edge of this ridge and temporary slow down before the direction of motion becomes northwesterly through the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in very good agreement this cycle, and the forecast track was shifted only slightly to the right of the previous one by virtue of Marie's nearly northwesterly initial motion. While large-scale conditions generally remain quite conducive for additional intensification, there is some disagreement with regard to how much northeasterly vertical shear is currently affecting Marie. The UW-CIMSS analyses indicate no more than 5-10 kt of northeasterly shear while SHIPS model output has consistently indicated around 15 kt. Regardless, the inner core structure of the hurricane and the favorable environmental conditions should allow for Marie's strengthening to major hurricane status, unless its intensification is interrupted by an eyewall replacement. Interestingly, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows little additional intensification except the SHIPS output, possibly in response to the less-than-optimal shear. Even though the shear is forecast to diminish after 72 hours, sea surface temperatures along Marie's path should rapidly decrease and cause a rapid spin-down of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast remains above all of the intensity guidance through day 3 except the SHIPS model output but approaches the multi-model consensus IVCN after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.7N 108.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.8N 115.6W 115 KT 135 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 21.4N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 24.0N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 26.7N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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