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Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-09-20 04:43:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 200243 PWSAT5 HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 40(53) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-09-20 04:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200241 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 56.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 59.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 64.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 68.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 67.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 57.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Jerry Graphics
2019-09-20 02:19:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 00:19:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:32:06 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-20 01:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 17.7, -56.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 10A
2019-09-20 01:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192358 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 56.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 56.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so, but some weakening is anticipated by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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