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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 16
2019-09-21 10:54:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western Atlantic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL STATEMENT: Jerry is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts of 3 inches, across St. Maarten, Anguilla, Anegada, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 16
2019-09-21 10:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 210853 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N 65.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.0N 67.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.3N 67.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.8N 66.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.2N 63.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 36.7N 60.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-21 07:57:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 05:57:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:24:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-21 07:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 21.0, -63.5 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 15A
2019-09-21 07:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210556 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 63.5W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 63.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western Atlantic on Monday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is estimated to be 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Barbuda, St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is also forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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