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Hurricane LINDA Public Advisory Number 5
2015-09-07 04:59:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070259 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 ...LINDA NOW A HURRICANE...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 110.4W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 110.4 West. Linda is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Linda could be near major hurricane strength on Monday. Weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-09-07 04:58:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070258 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 113.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.1N 115.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.2N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 119.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.2N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-09-07 04:53:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070253 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 Linda has been rapidly intensifying. Within the cyclone's sprawling circulation, a relatively small central dense overcast (CDO) has formed during the last 6 to 12 hours over the estimated low-level center. The deep convection within this feature has expanded in coverage, the associated cloud tops have cooled considerably, and its shape has become increasingly more symmetric. A 0110 UTC Windsat pass confirmed the rapid increase of inner-core structural organization, with a closed low-level ring of convection evident. A TAFB satellite classification of a T4.0/65 kt and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.2/70 kt are used to raise the initial intensity to 65 kt. The current rapid intensification is likely to continue for another 24 hours or so, since Linda will be moving over anomalously warm waters of 28 to 29.5 deg C and embedded in a very moist environment. The only negative factor could be some northeasterly shear as indicated in SHIPS model output. However, this shear has not prevented Linda from strengthening much faster than the climatological rate of one T-number per day thus far. A more poleward and faster track forecast (described below) should bring Linda over cooler waters sooner, and increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic factors should cause rapid weakening to begin in 2 to 3 days. Remnant low status is shown at day 5, but it would not be surprising if it occurred earlier. The new intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and shows a peak intensity in 24 hours. Overall, it is just above the strongest guidance, the SHIPS and FSU Superensemble output, in the short term and near the multi-model consensus after that. Linda has been moving more poleward and faster, and the initial motion estimate is 320/12. Water vapor and upper-air analyses show a large mid-level anticyclone near the Texas-Mexico border, with a weakness in the ridge between 120-130W. Global models show Linda moving northwestward to north-northwestward toward the break in this ridge within a deep-layer southeasterly flow during the next couple of days. As the ridge weakens and shifts westward over northern Mexico in 2 to 3 days, Linda should continue northwestward but decelerate. The rapid weakening forecast to begin around that time should make Linda a progressively shallower cyclone, and its track is forecast to bend west-northwestward and westward by days 4 and 5 as it will then be under the influence of the low-level subtropical ridge. The new track forecast is shifted to the right and faster than the previous one through 72 hours, and is close to the multi-model consensus. By day 5, the track is slower and a bit to the left of the old forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.1N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.3N 111.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 19.2N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 20.9N 114.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 22.1N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 24.2N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 25.0N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane LINDA Graphics
2015-09-07 04:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2015 02:49:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2015 02:52:29 GMT
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Hurricane LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-09-07 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070249 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 44 23(67) 1(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 2 37(39) 9(48) 2(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) ISLA CLARION 50 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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