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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2019-09-21 16:47:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 211447 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 31 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 17
2019-09-21 16:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 211447 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-21 10:59:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:59:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:38:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-21 10:59:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210859 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Mario has become quite disorganized tonight. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the low-level center is now located well to the east of the main area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of east-northeasterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak final T and CI numbers, and this could be generous given its current appearance. Although the strong shear currently affecting Mario is expected to lessen during the next couple of days, the cyclone will be moving into a drier airmass and over decreasing SSTs. Therefore, steady weakening seems likely, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous one. This prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Mario is expected to become a remnant low in 2 or 3 days when it will be over SSTs of about 24 C, and dissipate by day 4 over very cool waters offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The tropical storm is moving northward, or 350 degrees, at 4 kt. The increasingly shallow system is expected to move northwestward to north-northwestward, following Lorena, with the low-level flow. The track models are in fair agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2019-09-21 10:58:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 797 FOPZ14 KNHC 210858 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 36 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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