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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-28 22:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 282050 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...IDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 87.0W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 87.0 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi later on Monday and Monday night. Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42003, located about 90 miles (145 km) east of the eye, reported peak one-minuted sustained winds of 54 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) within the past hour or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and riverine flooding impacts. Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba this evening as the storm continues to lift northward away from the island. Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches possible across western Cuba through this evening. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-28 22:50:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282050 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-28 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 ...DEPRESSION STILL STRUGGLING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 50.0W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 50.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-28 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 282034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.2N 49.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 49.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.5N 48.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.2N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-08-28 19:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281753 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA STRENGTHENING WHILE AN EYE FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 105.4W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico * North of San Blas to Altata Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas later today or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through this evening, bringing Nora's center very close to or over the western part of Jalisco, Mexico, during the next several hours. A motion toward the north-northwest and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected Sunday through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Nora's center will approach the mouth of the Gulf of California on Sunday and move over southern portions of the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight if Nora's center does not move inland over Mexico. Some gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday, but Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently reported at Chamela-Cuixmala, Jalisco. A gust to 50 mph (80 km/h) was also reported at Manzanillo, Colima. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Nora's eyewall is moving onshore the coast of southern Jalisco and western Colima. Hurricane conditions are imminent within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area and will spread northward within warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area tonight and may spread to the northern portions of the watch area Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over tropical storm warning area south of Manzanillo and will spread to the northern tropical storm warning area north of San Blas this evening through Sunday night. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and the central Rockies. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Nora makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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