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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-28 16:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281451 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 86.1W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward along the northern Gulf coast to the Alabama/Florida border. The Hurricane Watch along the coast of Mississippi from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border has been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch along the coast of Louisiana west of Intracoastal City has also been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch from Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mobile Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 86.1 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding impacts and significant riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts. Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba today as the storm continues to lift northward away from the island. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across western Cuba through today. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through today. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast later today and continue through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-28 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 281450 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOBILE BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 86.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 86.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W...NEAR COAST OF LOUISIANA MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 86.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 12
2021-08-28 16:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281450 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 105.4W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch northward from Mazatlan to Topolobampo and has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward from Mazatlan to Altata. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to La Paz. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch south of Manzanillo and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico * North of San Blas to Altata Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas later today or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through this evening, bringing Nora's center very close to or over the western part of Jalisco, Mexico. A motion toward the north-northwest and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected Sunday through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Nora's center will approach the mouth of the Gulf of California on Sunday and move over southern portions of the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight if Nora's center does not make landfall. Some gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday, but Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area tonight and may spread to the northern portions of the watch area Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area this evening through Sunday night. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and the central Rockies. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Nora makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-28 16:49:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 281449 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD FROM MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 300SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 105.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.1N 107.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.3N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-28 16:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281435 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NOW HEADING NORTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 50.1W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 50.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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