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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-11 10:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110845 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.2W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.2W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 67.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.1N 80.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 68.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-08-11 07:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110537 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 67.6W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 67.6 West. Fred is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center nears the coast of the Dominican Republic later this morning. Some weakening is likely thereafter while the system interacts with Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next few hours, and in portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-11 04:58:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110258 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 66.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located by the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 66.8 West. Fred is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur early Wednesday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing during the next few days. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass near the southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast overnight before Fred reaches eastern Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h) was recently measured by a Weatherflow observing site in Las Mareas along the south-central coast of Puerto Rico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-11 04:52:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 824 WTPZ31 KNHC 110252 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED KEVIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 115.4W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 115.4 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin tomorrow and Kevin is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Linda Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-11 04:49:50| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...LINDA INTENSIFYING... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TOMORROW... Location: 14.3°N 103.5°W Max sustained: 50 mph Moving: WNW at 9 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
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