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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-08 16:46:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 081445 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 ...KEVIN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 109.0W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected early Monday, and that general motion should continue into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-08 16:45:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 081445 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.0W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.0W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 114.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.5N 115.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N 125.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-08 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 ...KEVIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 108.7W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 108.7 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a west-northwestward motion on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today, and spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-08 10:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.7W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.7W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-08 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 ...KEVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 107.7W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 107.7 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Kevin is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Sunday, and spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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