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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 1
2021-06-17 22:33:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 172033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 92.4W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 92.4 West. The system is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday. A subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from the Central Gulf coast northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. This will likely produce areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. TORNADOES: The threat for a couple tornadoes should begin Friday afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should expand northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and southwest Alabama on Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-17 22:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 172032 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA...TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 92.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Item 482 Portland Housing Advisory Commission Reappointments
2021-06-17 20:39:19| PortlandOnline
PDF Document, 930kbCategory: Current Agenda & Pending Items
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Public Advisory Number 16
2021-06-16 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 ...CARLOS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.6N 135.3W ABOUT 1950 MI...3140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was located near latitude 8.6 North, longitude 135.3 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, with that heading at a similar forward speed continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-06-16 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 161447 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 135.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 135.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 135.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 8.6N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 8.7N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 9.2N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.6N 135.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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