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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-09-25 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 089 WTNT23 KNHC 250832 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 46.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 46.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 46.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.1N 48.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.5N 49.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.0N 50.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.7N 51.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.4N 52.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.3N 53.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 59.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Teresa Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...TERESA LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 65.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Teresa was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 65.4 West. The storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the north and northeast is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Teresa should dissipate in about two days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250241 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.2N 65.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 36.2N 64.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-09-25 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250233 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 45.9W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 45.9W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 45.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.7N 47.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.1N 48.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.1N 51.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.8N 52.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 53.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.4N 55.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 58.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 45.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 9
2021-09-24 22:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242052 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...SAM'S INTENSIFICATION RESUMES AS THE HURRICANE SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 44.8W ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 44.8 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed and turn toward the west-northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next several days, and Sam is expected to become a major hurricane on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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