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Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-09-23 10:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230832 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 41.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 41.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ROSE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-23 07:01:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230501 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Rose Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-23 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 40.9W ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 40.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected tonight, with a turn toward the north forecast by Thursday night. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-23 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-23 04:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230237 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...LOTS OF TIME TO MONITOR... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 35.0W ABOUT 1955 MI...3150 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 35.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is expected later on Friday and continuing into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. It is then forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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