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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-06 16:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 061450 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESSO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 82.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 82.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 30
2020-10-06 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 061443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...MARIE ON LIFE SUPPORT... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 135.1W ABOUT 1605 MI...2585 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 135.1 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight, and a trough of low pressure in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-10-06 16:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 061442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 135.1W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 135.1W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.2N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 135.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 4
2020-10-06 16:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 061442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NORBERT CHANGES LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 106.6W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 106.6 West. Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected until tonight. The system is forecast to meander thereafter through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-10-06 13:58:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 061158 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DELTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 82.0W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum * Dzilam to Progresso A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 82.0 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected to begin later today through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands today. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in the watch area near the same time. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will be affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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