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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 27
2020-10-05 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 052043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...MARIE NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 132.7W ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 132.7 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Marie is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 27
2020-10-05 22:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 052042 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 132.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 132.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 132.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 132.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Gamma Public Advisory Number 14
2020-10-05 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gamma Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...GAMMA BECOMES A DEPRESSION... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 88.1W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Warning and the Tropical Storm Watch along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gamma was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 88.1 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a southwest, or west-southwest motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move inland over the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula Tuesday and remain over the northern portion of the peninsula and dissipate Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is expected degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tonight and dissipate over the northern portion of the Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-05 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 052032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL WARNING AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.1W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.1W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 88.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.9N 89.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 90.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 88.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-10-05 19:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051747 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...DELTA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 79.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 79.2 West. Delta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday before it nears western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today or tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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