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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 26

2020-10-05 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 051449 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 131.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 131.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 131.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.7N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.1N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.3N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 131.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 12A

2020-10-05 13:54:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051154 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS GAMMA WEAKER... ...FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 87.5W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 87.5 West. Gamma is drifting toward the south-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest later today, and continue to move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and on Tuesday. Gamma could possibly move inland along the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km), mainly northwest through northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on measurements from the hurricane hunter plane is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce significant flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 3A

2020-10-05 13:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051139 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 78.4W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.4 West. The storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the tropical storm is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-10-05 10:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 604 WTNT21 KNHC 050849 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.4N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.6N 80.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.5N 83.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.5N 85.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 88.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.9N 90.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 32.4N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 78.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Public Advisory Number 3

2020-10-05 10:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 605 WTNT31 KNHC 050849 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 78.2W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Six was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 78.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move away from Jamaica through this morning, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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