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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-29 04:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 981 WTNT31 KNHC 290247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 49.7W ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 49.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected through Sunday, and the depression is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later tonight or tomorrow. The system is then forecast to become extratropical by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-29 04:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 460 WTNT21 KNHC 290247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 49.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 49.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.6N 47.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.8N 43.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 39.5N 39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 43.4N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 47.9N 36.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2021-08-29 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 02:36:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 03:28:59 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-29 04:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 941 WTNT45 KNHC 290235 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 The center of the tropical depression remained exposed for much of the evening, though in the past hour or so the center has become located closer to a small, ragged area of convection. A more pronounced curved band can also be seen east of the depression though this feature is located over 120 n mi away. This structure is due to ongoing west-southwesterly shear and the presence of some dry air that continues to plague the cyclone. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and wind data from a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Some slight strengthening is possible later tonight through Sunday morning as a slight decrease in shear combined with the diurnal convective maximum may allow the depression to become a tropical storm. Thereafter through 60 h, the shear is forecast to increase, while the system moves into an drier environment. Thus, no further strengthening is forecast during this period, and the cyclone could weaken back into a tropical depression. By around 72 h, global models are suggesting that the shear will decrease again. So, some gradual strengthening is forecast after that time. It should also be noted that the GFS, which earlier forecast the system to degenerate into a remnant low in a few days, now keeps the cyclone in tact and deepens it when the shear lessens toward the end of the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one through 24 h, but is higher beyond 24 h. This forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and IVCN guidance through 72 h, but is lower than those solutions after that time. The depression is moving toward the north at 9 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, carved out by a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic. This trough and associated ridge weakness is forecast to remain in place for the next few days, resulting in the cyclone continuing a general northward motion. By late in the forecast period, the trough is expected to lift out of the region and be replaced by a ridge, which would result in the system turning northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the various multi-model consensus tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 16.6N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.7N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 19.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 20.8N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 22.3N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 31/1200Z 23.5N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 25.0N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 28.2N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 31.5N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-29 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 290235 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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