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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-08-28 22:34:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 282034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 This afternoon's satellite presentation consists of an exposed surface circulation with a rather shapeless convective mass displaced to the east and north of the center. Without question, the 15 to 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear is doing a number on the cloud pattern. Also evident, are a number of arc clouds propagating away from the system's deep convection, certainly indicative of dry air intrusion. Consequently, the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt for this advisory. The global models as well as the Decay SHIPS (ECMWF/GFS) intensity guidance still show the shear relaxing a bit tonight and into Sunday, which should allow the depression to briefly become a tropical storm. By Monday, however, the shear is forecast to increase while the cyclone moves into an even more dry and stable air mass. These inhibiting contributions should stifle further strengthening and weaken the cyclone back to a depression through the remainder of the forecast period. It's worth mentioning that the GFS indicates that the depression will become a remnant low in 72 hours while turning northwestward to west-northwestward within the tradewind flow and dissipate by the end of the week. For now, the NHC forecast will stick with the consensus intensity models and the SHIPS guidance which agree on maintaining a depression through day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The depression remains embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow produced by a mid-Atlantic trough dominating the central Atlantic. This synoptic feature, along with a subtropical high pressure located over the east Atlantic and western Africa, should influence a generally northward motion through the 5-day period. The official track forecast again is adjusted a little to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN and HCCA multimodel solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.6N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 18.2N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 21.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/0600Z 22.5N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 23.8N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 27.2N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 30.5N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102021)

2021-08-28 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION STILL STRUGGLING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 15.6, -50.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 3

2021-08-28 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 ...DEPRESSION STILL STRUGGLING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 50.0W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 50.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-08-28 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 282034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.2N 49.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 49.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.5N 48.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.2N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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