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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2021-08-28 10:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 08:55:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 08:55:57 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-28 10:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280855 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 The tropical wave and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the past several days has finally acquired a well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The last few visible satellite images yesterday evening indicated a tight swirl in the low-cloud field and a 27/2325Z partial ASCAT-A pass showed the circulation was also well-defined, albeit with only 23-kt surface winds. Since the time of that scatterometer pass, however, a significant increase in deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has developed very near and to the northeast of he center, with a few cells also now having developed just to the southwest of the center. Based on the structure noted in the ASCAT data and the pronounced increase in the amount and organization of the convection, the advisory intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt. The system has slowed down markedly during the past several hours, likely due to the sharp increase in the associated convection. A turn toward the north is forecast to begin later this afternoon as the system moves into a break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge pattern, with a general northward motion continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance is surprisingly in good agreement on this track scenario, with only minor forward speed differences noted between the models. The 18-20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear affecting the depression is expected to abate somewhat during the next 12-24 hours, which should allow for some slight strengthening to occur while the system moves over 27.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures. By 48 hours, however, the shear is forecast to increase again in excess of 25 kt, which should act to weaken the cyclone, possibly even causing it to degenerate into a remnant low. For now, however, the official intensity forecast calls for the system to remain a tropical depression at days 3 and 4 in the event the cyclone regenerates at day 5 when the shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt, which may allow for convection to redevelop. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 14.0N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 16.1N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 17.7N 50.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 19.1N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 20.7N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 21.9N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 27.5N 52.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-28 10:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 14.0, -49.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-28 10:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 49.9W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 49.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue this morning. By this afternoon, the depression is forecast to move northward, and then maintain that general motion into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to remain over the open Atlantic well to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-28 10:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280854 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 49.9W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 49.9W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.1N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.7N 50.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.1N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.7N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.9N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 52.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 49.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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