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Tropical Depression Hernan Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...HERNAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 109.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern coast of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Hernan. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hernan was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 109.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Hernan is forecast to move over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon or tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Hernan is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area tonight. The remnants are expected to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 16:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HERNAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.1N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Laura Public Advisory Number 34
2020-08-28 10:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-28 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280831 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Iselle continues to produce deep convection near the center and on its west side. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to a moderate amount of easterly wind shear. An ASCAT-A overpass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 45-50 kt range, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. The intensity models suggest that little change in strength is likely today as Iselle remains in the current environment of easterly shear. However, gradual weakening should begin by tonight and continue through the weekend as Iselle moves over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the models, and predicts Iselle to weaken to a tropical depression in a couple of days and to a remnant low shortly thereafter. Iselle is moving slowly northeastward toward Tropical Storm Hernan located near the coast of west-central Mexico. Iselle should generally move northeastward to north-northeastward as it remains embedded in a trough with Hernan for about another day. Thereafter, Hernan is expected to dissipate and a low- to mid-level ridge should cause Iselle to turn to the northwest. This track keeps Iselle well offshore the Baja California peninsula. The models are in fair agreement, and this forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. The initial wind radii have been modified based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.9N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.7N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.1N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.7N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 23.0N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.9N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 24.2N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-28 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280831 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ISLA CLARION 50 28 5(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 31(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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