je.st

Home › number

Tag: number

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2020-07-29 10:45:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 290845 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 11(26) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 11(26) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 10(29) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 8(34) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) 6(37) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 6(27) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 5(28) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 5(39) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 5(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 9(37) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 12(33) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 15(30) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) 4(27) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 9(33) 1(34) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 32(34) 8(42) 1(43) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 30(37) 1(38) 1(39) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 1(21) X(21) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 19(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 37(37) 10(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 14(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 62(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 3( 3) 45(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 X 85(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 78(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 81(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) VIEQUES PR 34 11 76(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) SAINT THOMAS 34 20 58(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT CROIX 34 54 39(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAINT MAARTEN 34 63 4(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SABA 34 90 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ST EUSTATIUS 34 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BARBUDA 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 43 X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number potential speed wind

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-07-29 10:44:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 256 WTNT24 KNHC 290844 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND... LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO CAUCEDO * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.3W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.3W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.3N 64.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...220NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.8N 67.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.3N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 30SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.6N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.1N 76.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.3N 78.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 28.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 61.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number potential advisory tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 3A

2020-07-29 07:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290541 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 60.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominica * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Cabo Caucedo * Turks and Caicos Islands Interests elsewhere in the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 60.3 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move through the southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm today. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km), north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands during the next few hours, and spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. Rainfall is also expected in the following locations: Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These dangerous conditions are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number public potential advisory

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2020-07-29 04:53:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 290253 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 14(33) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 14(33) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 12(38) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 10(41) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 9(44) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 8(32) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 8(32) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 6(38) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 5(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 9(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 11(29) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 13(32) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 6(36) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 13(38) 2(40) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 12(48) 1(49) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 38(43) 3(46) X(46) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 21(27) 2(29) X(29) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 16(43) 1(44) X(44) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 27(27) 20(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 53(53) 9(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 42(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 X 40(40) 28(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) PONCE PR 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 34(34) 42(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 52(52) 24(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 1 77(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) VIEQUES PR 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 75(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 2 82(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SAINT CROIX 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT MAARTEN 34 14 51(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SABA 34 29 56(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ST EUSTATIUS 34 49 37(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 67 21(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BARBUDA 34 63 9(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ANTIGUA 34 84 4(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GUADELOUPE 34 90 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GUADELOUPE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 20 12(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) DOMINICA 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) DOMINICA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 11 X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number potential speed wind

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 3

2020-07-29 04:53:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 59.4W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of its country from the border with Haiti eastward to Punta Caucedo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominica * Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Punta Caucedo * Turks and Caicos Islands Interests elsewhere in the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 59.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning, and spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. Rainfall is also expected in the following locations: Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number public potential advisory

Sites : [1188] [1189] [1190] [1191] [1192] [1193] [1194] [1195] [1196] [1197] [1198] [1199] [1200] [1201] [1202] [1203] [1204] [1205] [1206] [1207] next »

news

Categories:

Popular Tags: