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Tropical Depression Hanna Public Advisory Number 16
2020-07-26 22:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hanna Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 ...HANNA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 100.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF MONTERREY MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of Hanna. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hanna was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 100.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should continue to move farther inland over northeastern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center of Hanna moves farther inland. Hanna is expected to become a remnant low on Monday and dissipate by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce the following rain accumulations and flood threats through Monday: South Texas...Additional 2 to 5 inches. Storm total amounts 6 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Northern Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Northern Mexican states of northern Zacatecas, northern San Luis Potosi, and eastern Durango...1 to 4 inches. This rain will produce life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor river flooding in South Texas. Flash flooding and mudslides are likely across Northern Mexican states. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna will continue to affect much of the Texas and northeastern Mexico coasts through early Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through this evening across parts of south Texas NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hanna. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-07-26 22:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 103 WTNT23 KNHC 262033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 100.6W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 100.6W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.2N 101.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.0N 102.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 100.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HANNA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 15A
2020-07-26 19:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261742 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 ...HANNA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 100.1W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF MONTERREY MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of northeastern Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of Hanna. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 100.1 West. Hanna is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should continue to move farther inland over northeastern Mexico through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center of Hanna moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today and dissipate Monday or Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A wind gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Monterrey, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Texas coast will gradually subside through this afternoon. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue near the center of Hanna for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce the following rain accumulations and flood threats through Monday: South Texas...Additional 2 to 5 inches. Storm total amounts 6 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Northern Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Northern Mexican states of northern Zacatecas and eastern Durango...1 to 4 inches. This rain will produce life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in South Texas. Flash flooding and mudslides are likely across Northern Mexican states. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna will continue to affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today into this evening across parts of south Texas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-07-26 16:45:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 058 WTNT43 KNHC 261445 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Surface observations and WSR-88D radar data from Brownsville, Texas, indicate that Hanna continues to weaken as it moves farther inland. The radar shows a couple of fairly well-defined bands of convection over the eastern semicircle and tropical-storm-force wind gusts have been reported at observing sites along the U.S./Mexico border within the past couple of hours. The initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, and is based primarily on recent observations and Doppler radar velocities. Hanna should continue to weaken quickly during the next 12-24 hours as it moves inland over Mexico. Hanna is forecast to become a tropical depression later today and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by Monday night. Hanna is moving west-southwestward or 250/8 kt. The system is forecast to continue moving west-southwestward around the southern portion of a mid-level ridge over the central United States. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the various consensus aids. Key Messages 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to persist into this afternoon near and to the east of the center of Hanna. 2. Heavy rainfall from Hanna has already produced numerous reports of flash flooding across south Texas. Additional heavy rainfall will continue to cause life-threatening flash flooding over south Texas and northern Mexico, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3. Storm surge along the Texas coast should continue to diminish today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 26.1N 99.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 25.5N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/1200Z 25.0N 101.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0000Z 24.9N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Hanna Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-07-26 16:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 454 FONT13 KNHC 261445 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MCALLEN TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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