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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2020-07-28 16:57:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 281457 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 16(29) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 16(31) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 10(36) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 8(37) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 23(36) 3(39) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) 2(33) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 9(44) X(44) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 2(48) X(48) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 1(41) X(41) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 31(31) 29(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 44(44) 22(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 45(45) 12(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 3( 3) 63(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABA 34 X 3( 3) 62(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SABA 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SABA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 4( 4) 62(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 7( 7) 59(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 X 22(22) 48(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X 28(28) 43(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ANTIGUA 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X 35(35) 19(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GUADELOUPE 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) DOMINICA 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MARTINIQUE 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number potential speed wind

Tropical Depression Hanna Public Advisory Number 18

2020-07-27 10:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

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Tropical Depression Hanna Public Advisory Number 17

2020-07-27 04:48:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

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Tropical Depression Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-07-26 22:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262034 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Hanna Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Surface observations along with radar and satellite imagery show that Hanna continues to weaken as it moves farther inland. There have been no recent observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and Doppler velocities have continued to decrease. Based on these trends, the initial wind speed has been reduced to 30 kt. Hanna should continue to spin down while it moves over the high terrain of northeastern Mexico. The system is forecast to become a remnant low in 12-18 hours, and should dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by late Monday, if not sooner. Hanna is moving west-southwestward or 245/8 kt. The cyclone should continue on this general heading and speed until dissipation occurs. The updated NHC track forecast is again similar to the previous advisory and is close to the dynamical model consensus. This is the last NHC advisory on Hanna. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages 1. Heavy rainfall from Hanna has already produced numerous reports of flash flooding across south Texas. Additional heavy rainfall will continue to result in life-threatening flash flooding over south Texas and northern Mexico, and isolated minor river flooding in south Texas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 25.6N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 27/0600Z 25.2N 101.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/1800Z 25.0N 102.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Hanna Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2020-07-26 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 262033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number speed wind tropical

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