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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Cristina's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat during the past several hours, with deep convection on the wane and some evidence of dry air near the center. Still, microwave data does show a large banding pattern with a mid-level core present, suggesting there might be more than meets the eye than just conventional satellite imagery. The current intensity of the storm is difficult to ascertain, as estimates from generally credible techniques range from 45 kt to 77 kt on this package. It is probably best to keep the initial wind speed 60 kt for now, and we will see if the intensity becomes more clear overnight. The storm has about a day over marginally warm waters in light shear conditions before SSTs begin to cool, and eventually more significant dry air is entrained into the inner core. Thus some strengthening is anticipated on Friday, and Cristina should start a gradual weakening over the weekend through early next week. The cyclone should have a challenging time producing convection over sub-23C waters, which happens in about 72 hours, so that is the time chosen for post-tropical transition. This is earlier than the previous forecast and best matches a GFS/ECMWF blend. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast with guidance in good agreement at this time. Christina continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen over the next day or so, which should force the storm in a similar direction but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The forecast track is a little slower than the previous one at long range, otherwise the track is basically an update of the earlier track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.4N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-07-10 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-07-10 01:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 874 WTNT31 KNHC 092341 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...FAY MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 74.8W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 74.8 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, and move inland over the northeast United States on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along and near the track of Fay across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward through the warning area Friday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-09 22:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092057 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer Banks today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear. These environmental conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday. After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification. Fay should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or Saturday. Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The 12Z dynamical model guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model fields imply. As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is indicated in the model fields. The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southern New England. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-09 22:56:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092055 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 74.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, and move inland over the northeast United States on Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along and near the track of Fay across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward through the warning area Friday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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